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Climate Migration: Displacement of 1.2 Billion People by 2050

Photo: Midjourney
Published by

May 2, 2025

Climate migration is reshaping lives across the globe. Imagine losing your home to a flood, facing hunger due to drought, or being forced to flee because of rising sea levels. This is the reality for millions todayβ€”and could be for over a billion by mid-century.

Between 2008 and 2016, an annual average of 21.5 million people were forcibly displaced each year by weather-related events such as floods, storms, wildfires, and droughts. In 2022 alone, this figure reached a record 32.6 million. The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) projects that up to 1.2 billion people could be displaced globally by 2050 due to climate change and natural disasters. The Guardian

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The Domino Effect

Climate migration is often exacerbated by interconnected risks that can cause a domino effect. For instance, rising temperatures can reduce water availability and quality, increasing the spread of disease and raising the likelihood of droughts leading to crop failures. This sequence can reduce incomes and food supplies, potentially leading to social disruption and political instability.

This domino effect was evident in Syria, where desertification between 2006 and 2010 led to plummeting crop yields, loss of income for 800,000 people, and the death of 85% of the country's livestock. As livelihoods vanished, food prices soared, and 1.5 million rural workers moved to cities seeking jobs. Those left behind faced poverty, becoming vulnerable to recruitment by extremist groups.

Adaptation and Support

Addressing climate migration requires creating economic opportunities in environmentally threatened societies. In Bangladesh, for example, increased salinity from cyclones has rendered 53% of farmland unsuitable for traditional crops. However, initiatives like the Salt Solution project, supported by Dutch researchers and local NGOs, are training farmers to cultivate salt-tolerant crops, resulting in multiple harvests per year.

Furthermore, the UNHCR is collaborating with local partners to plant fast-growing trees in refugee camps prone to landslides during monsoons, aiming to stabilize the ground and prevent further displacement.

Towards Recognition and Action

Despite the growing number of climate-induced displacements, many affected individuals lack formal recognition and protection. In March 2018, the UN Human Rights Council highlighted that climate refugees often do not fit the traditional definition of "refugees," leaving them without legal safeguards.

To address this, governments and legal bodies must reframe climate-induced conditions as threats to human rights, ensuring that those displaced by environmental factors receive appropriate protection.

Ultimately, the most effective solution lies in curbing climate change by adhering to international agreements like the Paris Agreement, aiming to limit global temperature increases and mitigate the factors driving mass displacement.

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