We’re not just failing to meet climate targets - we’re accelerating past them. A sweeping new study traces 230 years of greenhouse gas emissions and finds that without radical change, we’re headed for a world that’s more than 3°C hotter by 2050. And it’s not just because of fossil fuels. The real story is a complex, global mix of deforestation, agriculture, industrialization, and economic expansion that has overwhelmed every technological advance we've made so far.

Published in Global Environmental Change, the study offers a rare long-term view of global and regional emissions from 1820 to 2018 - and projects what’s ahead. Among its most striking findings: emissions from fossil fuels didn’t surpass land-based emissions until 1969. That’s right - for nearly 150 years, most of the damage to the climate came not from factories or cars, but from clearing forests and expanding farmland.

Land-use change still matters. Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa - often overlooked in global climate blame - together account for nearly 40% of historical deforestation-related emissions. When including all greenhouse gases (not just CO₂ from fossil fuels), the picture of responsibility shifts dramatically. Latin America’s land-use emissions per capita (7.4 tCO₂e/person) rival Western Europe’s fossil fuel emissions over the same period (5.7 tCO₂e/person).

Yet the core engine of the crisis is clear: economic growth. Over the last two centuries, growing incomes and expanding populations added an estimated 81 Gt CO₂e to the atmosphere, while all technological improvements—including energy efficiency and cleaner fuel sources—only saved around 31 Gt. That means for every ton we’ve saved through better tech, we’ve emitted more than two through affluence and consumption

The study breaks it down further. Between 1945 and 1990 - the so-called “Great Acceleration” - global emissions grew faster than ever. Even though energy efficiency and cleaner fuels improved dramatically during this time, economic growth simply outpaced them. And while high-income countries have made some progress in decoupling emissions from growth since 1990, the global picture tells a tougher story: emissions are still rising, and the rate of improvement in carbon intensity has plateaued.

Looking ahead, the numbers are stark. To stay below 2°C of warming, global carbon intensity would need to fall by 5.7% every year until 2050. That’s three times faster than the best historical rate of improvement - an annual 2.2% drop achieved only briefly in recent decades. Even if we replicate the best-performing region in history (Eastern Europe between 1985–2014), we’d still blow past 2°C. If current trends continue, we land in the red zone: over 3°C of warming by mid-century.

So what now? The study doesn’t offer silver bullets - but it does offer perspective. It reminds us that the Paris climate targets aren’t just ambitious. They’re historically unprecedented. Efficiency improvements alone won’t be enough. Unless we slow the economy or reimagine how growth happens, we’ll need technology - and global coordination - on a scale humanity has never seen.

As the authors write, the goal now is “transformations far greater than those seen in recent years despite widespread climate policies.” Or put more bluntly: history isn’t on our side - but that doesn’t mean we have to repeat it.